Cervical cancer incidence rates considering migration status in mainland China using Bayesian model—Estimation based on 2016 cancer registry data

Abstract In mainland China, cancer registration relies on household‐registered populations, overlooking migrant populations. Estimating cervical cancer incidence among permanent residents, including migrants, offers a more accurate representation of the true burden. The data from 487 cancer registries across China in 2016 were analyzed using a Bayesian spatial regression model with the integrated nested Laplace approximation‐stochastic partial differential equation method. The study estimated cervical cancer incidence among household‐registered populations and adjusted for migrant populations using a weighting method based on interprovincial distribution and age stratification to derive the incidence of cervical cancer in the permanent residents. Data from the China Population Census, the China Migrants Dynamic Survey, and the Urban Statistical Yearbook were incorporated. The estimated crude incidence rate of cervical cancer among permanent residents was 17.4/100,000 in mainland China, with an age‐standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of 17.2/100,000. The largest disparities in cervical cancer crude incidence rate between permanent residents and household‐registered populations were observed in Guizhou (2.4/100,000, 95% CI 1.9–2.9/100,000), Zhejiang (−1.2/100,000, 95% CI −1.8 to −0.6/100,000) and Tianjin (−1.1/100,000, 95% CI −1.5 to −0.7/100,000). The number of the estimated cervical cancer incident cases was 8948. Guangdong saw an increase of 887 cases, while Henan had a decrease of 1430 cases. Guizhou had the highest ASIR (28.1/100,000), and Beijing had the lowest ASIR (11.0/100,000). The significance of this study is that it improves the accuracy of cervical cancer data in China. These findings provide evidence for developing cervical cancer prevention and control strategies, and offer insights for other countries and regions facing migration challenges.