Risk-Based Primary Prevention of Heart Failure: A Scientific Statement From the American Heart Association

The growing morbidity, mortality, and health care costs related to heart failure (HF) underscore the urgent need to prioritize its primary prevention. Whereas a risk-based approach for HF prevention remains in its infancy, several key opportunities exist to actualize this paradigm in clinical practice. First, the 2022 American Heart Association/American College of Cardiology/Heart Failure Society of America HF guidelines provided recommendations, for the first time, on the clinical utility of multivariable risk equations to estimate risk of incident HF. Second, the American Heart Association recently developed the PREVENT (Predicting Risk of Cardiovascular Disease Events) equations, which not only enable prediction of incident HF separately, but also include HF in the prediction of total cardiovascular disease. Third, the predominant phenotype of HF risk has emerged as the cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic syndrome. Fourth, the emergence of novel therapies that prevent incident HF (eg, sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors) and target multiple cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic axes demonstrate growing potential for risk-based interventions. Whereas the concept of risk-based prevention has been established for decades, it has only been operationalized for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease prevention to date. Translating these opportunities into a conceptual framework of risk-based primary prevention of HF requires implementation of PREVENT-HF (Predicting Risk of Cardiovascular Disease Events–Heart Failure) equations, targeted use of cardiac biomarkers (eg, natriuretic peptides) and echocardiography for risk reclassification and earlier detection of pre-HF, and definition of therapy-specific risk thresholds that incorporate net benefit and cost-effectiveness. This scientific statement reviews the current evidence for accurate risk prediction, defines strategies for equitable prevention, and proposes potential strategies for the successful implementation of risk-based primary prevention of HF.