Assessment of land degradation in the North China Plain driven by food security goals

Land degradation directly affects global and regional economic, social development, and food security, which has become a hot and challenging issue in the global ecological field. A successful response to land degradation requires understanding its causes, impacts, and extent. It is also essential to recognize the effects of climate, soil, water, land cover, and socioeconomic factors on land degradation. Therefore, assessing land degradation risk can help prevent and reverse land degradation trends, especially for the main grain production area. The Environmental Sensitivity Area Index (ESAI) was used to identify land degradation sensitive areas in the North China Plain and combined with a random forest model to determine the main drivers affecting land degradation and predict future land degradation sensitive areas. The results show decreasing land degradation risk in the North China Plain. In 2015, the sensitivity of land degradation in the North China Plain had improved. The proportion of land area with high sensitivity to land degradation reduced to 0.02%. Combining the spatial and temporal distribution of ESAI and the prediction results of the random forest model, we know that socio-economic factors have the most significant impact on land degradation sensitivity. Although the risk of land degradation is decreasing, it is still necessary to pay attention to the possible future land degradation risk to stabilize food production. Assessing land degradation risk in North China Plain provides important decision information for rational and sustainable land management and has more vital practical significance. • The land degradation sensitivity in North China Plain improved. • The ESAI and random forest model were combined to predict the future land degradation risk trends in the North China Plain. • The growth of population and GDP are important influencing the potential risk of land degradation.