Assessing the Physical Realism of Deep Learning Hydrologic Model Projections Under Climate Change

Abstract This study examines whether deep learning models can produce reliable future projections of streamflow under warming. We train a regional long short‐term memory network (LSTM) to daily streamflow in 15 watersheds in California and develop three process models (HYMOD, SAC‐SMA, and VIC) as benchmarks. We force all models with scenarios of warming and assess their hydrologic response, including shifts in the hydrograph and total runoff ratio. All process models show a shift to more winter runoff, reduced summer runoff, and a decline in the runoff ratio due to increased evapotranspiration. The LSTM predicts similar hydrograph shifts but in some watersheds predicts an unrealistic increase in the runoff ratio. We then test two alternative versions of the LSTM in which process model outputs are used as either additional training targets (i.e., multi‐output LSTM) or input features. Results indicate that the multi‐output LSTM does not correct the unrealistic streamflow projections under warming. The hybrid LSTM using estimates of evapotranspiration from SAC‐SMA as an additional input feature produces more realistic streamflow projections, but this does not hold for VIC or HYMOD. This suggests that the hybrid method depends on the fidelity of the process model. Finally, we test climate change responses under an LSTM trained to over 500 watersheds across the United States and find more realistic streamflow projections under warming. Ultimately, this work suggests that hybrid modeling may support the use of LSTMs for hydrologic projections under climate change, but so may training LSTMs to a large, diverse set of watersheds.