A tiered probabilistic approach to assess antibiotic ecological and resistance development risks in the fresh surface waters of China

Exposure to antibiotics can result in not only ecotoxicity on aquatic organisms but also the development of antibiotic resistance. In the study, the ecotoxicity data and minimum inhibitory concentrations of the antibiotics were screened to derive predicted no-effect concentrations of ecological (PNECeco) and resistance development risks (PNECres) for 36 antibiotics in fresh surface waters of China. The derived PNECeco and PNECres values were ranged from 0.00175 to 2351 μg/L and 0.037–50 μg/L, respectively. Antibiotic ecological and resistance development risks were geographically widespread, especially in the Yongding River, Daqing River, and Ziya River basins of China. Based on the risk quotients, 11 and 14 of 36 target antibiotics were at high ecological risks and high resistance development risks in at least one basin, respectively. The higher tiered assessments provided more detailed risk descriptions by probability values and β-lactams (penicillin and amoxicillin) were present at the highest levels for ecological and resistance development risks. Although there was uncertainty based on the limited data and existing methods, this study can indicate the overall situation of the existing risk levels and provide essential insights and data supporting antibiotic management.