Design of Power Spot Market Price Prediction Model Considering New Energy Output

Nowadays, countries in the world are facing severe problems of climate change and energy shortage. Most of the current rules of major international power markets were formulated more than 20 years ago for power systems with coal power as the main power source, and cannot fully adapt to the market status and demand for an increasing proportion of new energy. At present, China's electricity spot market is still in the preliminary exploration stage, electricity price mechanism, quotation mechanism, market rules, etc. are not yet mature, after the proportion of new energy power generation gradually expands, the importance of considering the prediction method of new energy output on the spot market price of electricity is also increasing. Different from traditional power sources, new energy sources are characterized by high fixed cost, low variable cost, high volatility, and difficult to predict output. Therefore, the operation of power system becomes more complicated, and the design of power market is also necessary to adjust accordingly. Using multiple linear regression model, this paper makes an empirical analysis and evaluation of the influence of traditional energy output, new energy output and load on electricity price in a certain place, and makes an in-depth analysis of the relationship between new energy output and spot price fluctuation in electricity market. Finally, the paper puts forward the forecasting method of electricity spot market price considering new energy output.