Age-Related Disability Outcomes After a First Demyelinating Event

Emerging concepts in the early detection of multiple sclerosis (MS) progression reveal that disability accumulation can start early in the disease course. Aging in MS is increasingly recognized as a key factor for disease progression and disability accrual. We evaluate the prognostic impact of age in a cohort of patients experiencing a first demyelinating event (FDE), using a variety of disability outcomes, including some not previously assessed in age-specific studies. Patients aged 18-50 years, assessed within 3 months from the FDE, were prospectively included since 1994 and categorized into 3 age groups: 18-29, 30-39, and 40-50 years. Relapse-associated worsening (RAW) at FDE, annualized relapse rate, and EDSS trajectories during follow-up were compared across age groups. Cox regression analyses adjusted for sex, comorbidities, and time exposed to very high-efficacy drugs were performed to assess the risk of achieving the following outcomes: time to reach McDonald 2017 criteria, first relapse, recurrent RAW, >2 new T2 brain lesions/year, first progression independent of relapse activity (PIRA), confirmed disability accumulation (CDA), and confirmed EDSS score 3.0. Patient-reported outcome measures were also analyzed. A total of 1,170 patients were included (median age 32 years; 69% female). The 40-50 group had a higher proportion of RAW at FDE (34% vs 25% and 29%; p = 0.031) and less time exposed to very high-efficacy treatments (p < 0.001) than the 30-39 and 18-29 groups, respectively. EDSS trajectories in the 40-50 group displayed a greater annual increase in the EDSS score compared with the 18-29 group (β 0.019 [95% CI 0.0001; 0.0387]). Cox analyses (HR; 95% CI) showed that the 40-50 group was at lower risk to reach McDonald 2017 criteria (0.80; 0.67-0.96), first relapse (0.59; 0.47-0.74), recurrent RAW (0.51; 0.31-0.86), or >2 new T2 brain lesions/year (0.39; 0.30-0.52), but at a higher risk of CDA (1.49; 1.16-1.97), PIRA (2.48; 1.88-3.27), and EDSS score 3.0 (1.50; 1.05-2.12), than the 18-29 group. Different functional and well-being variables were more affected in the 40-50 group, compared with 30-39 and 18-29 groups (p values< 0.05). Patients with a FDE at 40-50 years exhibit less inflammatory outcomes compared with younger patients and reach outcomes more closely related to neurodegeneration despite the lower disease activity.