Multi-criteria evaluation of the effectiveness of energy policy in Central and Eastern European countries in a long-term perspective

In the 21st century, environmental goals such as reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and increasing the share of renewable energy sources in the energy mix became the main priority in energy policy making. At the same time, the goal of maintaining energy independence has been somewhat marginalized and has only regained importance in the context of the crisis caused by such events as the Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine. Both circumstances pose a significant problem for the countries of Central and Eastern Europe; therefore, this article presents an assessment of the effectiveness of energy policy (EoEP) implementation in 11 countries of the region. The evaluation process uses multi-criteria analysis using the following conditions: (1) environmental; (2) energy resource; (3) economic and (4) energy security. The research was conducted in a long-term perspective of 21 years. The results show a low level of implementation of environmental objectives in the analyzed countries and an average advancement of energy transformation in most of them. The balance sheets of the CEE countries surveyed are still dominated by non-renewable energy sources (share of 65–97%). This dominance is not conducive to maintaining energy security because many of the countries studied do not have their own sources of coal, gas or oil (resource sufficiency less than 1/3 in 8 of 11 countries studied). The observed trends testify to the low EoEP goals, both in the environmental and energy security areas. The results suggest that the most effective path of energy transformation is the diversification of energy mixes achieved through the abandonment of non-renewable resources and their simultaneous replacement by hydropower and nuclear energy. • The importance of energy security increases in crisis situations. • Implementation of environmental goals in Central and Eastern Europe is not very effective. • Non-renewable sources dominate the balance sheets of the countries analyzed. • The effectiveness of energy policy is fostered by diversifying energy mixes. • Hydropower and nuclear energy supports the effectiveness of the energy transition.