农业生产力
全要素生产率
农业
生产力
气候变化
反事实思维
基线(sea)
环境科学
自然资源经济学
经济
农业经济学
地理
生态学
经济增长
政治学
生物
认识论
哲学
考古
法学
作者
Ariel Ortiz‐Bobea,Toby R. Ault,Carlos M. Carrillo,Robert G. Chambers,David B. Lobell
标识
DOI:10.1038/s41558-021-01000-1
摘要
Agricultural research has fostered productivity growth, but the historical influence of anthropogenic climate change (ACC) on that growth has not been quantified. We develop a robust econometric model of weather effects on global agricultural total factor productivity (TFP) and combine this model with counterfactual climate scenarios to evaluate impacts of past climate trends on TFP. Our baseline model indicates that ACC has reduced global agricultural TFP by about 21% since 1961, a slowdown that is equivalent to losing the last 7 years of productivity growth. The effect is substantially more severe (a reduction of ~26–34%) in warmer regions such as Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean. We also find that global agriculture has grown more vulnerable to ongoing climate change. Agricultural productivity has increased historically, but the impact of climate change on productivity growth is not clear. In the last 60 years, anthropogenic climate change has reduced agricultural total factor production globally by 21%, with stronger impacts in warmer regions.
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