Development and Validation of a Clinical-Genetic Risk Score to Predict Hepatic Encephalopathy in Patients With Liver Cirrhosis

INTRODUCTION: We aimed to define the impact of the genetic background on overt hepatic encephalopathy (HE) in patients with liver cirrhosis by developing a combined clinical-genetic risk score. METHODS: Patients suffering from liver cirrhosis from the outpatient clinics of 4 hospitals (n = 600) were included and followed up for at least 5 years until HE bouts, liver transplant, or death. Patients were genotyped for 60 candidate single nucleotide polymorphisms together with the microsatellite in the promoter region of the gene GLS . RESULTS: Single nucleotide polymorphisms rs601338 ( FUT2 ), rs5743836 ( TRL9 ), rs2562582 ( SLC1A3 ), rs313853 ( SLC1A5 ), and GLS microsatellite did predict independently the incidence and severity of overt HE and were included as genetic score. Competing risk analysis revealed that bilirubin (subhazard ratio [sHR] 1.30 [1.15–1.48], P < 0.001), albumin (sHR 0.90 [0.86–0.93], P < 0.001), genetic score (sHR 1.90 [1.57–2.30], P < 0.001), and previous episodes of overt HE (sHR 2.60 [1.57–4.29], P < 0.001) were independently associated to HE bouts during the follow-up with an internal (C-index 0.83) and external validation (C-index 0.74). Patients in the low-risk group had 5% and 12% risk of HE at 1 (log-rank 92.1; P < 0.001) and 5 (log-rank 124.1; P < 0.001) years, respectively, whereas 36% and 48% in the high-risk group. DISCUSSION: The genetic background influenced overt HE risk and severity. The clinical-genetic HE Risk score, which combined genetic background together with albumin, bilirubin, and previous episodes of overt HE, could be a useful tool to predict overt HE in patients with cirrhosis.