The impact of climate change on plant diversity in peatlands in Sichuan province, China

Introduction: There are extensive peatland habitats in Sichuan Province, a crucial ecological barrier in southwest China. However, climate change has caused widespread degradation of peatland habitats, creating significant survival challenges for many peatland species. Methods: Using the MaxEnt model, we can assess the link between species distribution and environmental variables, forecast the geographical patterns of significant peatland plant richness hotspots in Sichuan Province from 1981 to 2010, and identify significant environmental driving factors. The probable distribution patterns for major peatland plants are further forecasted by combining three future(2071-2100s) climate outlooks, corresponding to SSP1-2.6 (low), SSP3-7.0 (medium), and SSP5-8.5 (high) emission trajectories. Results: The foremost variables determining the geographic distribution of peatland plants in Sichuan Province include SCD (Snow cover days, 41.5%), Slope (40.4%), TWI (Topographic wetness index, 7.3%), Bio15 (Precipitation seasonality, 2.2%), and Bio3 (Isothermality, 2.1%). SCD (optimal range of 120-240 days) plays a key role in regulating soil temperature, humidity, and protecting plants from cold, significantly affecting peatland plants in Sichuan Province. Overall, the distribution of 50 prominent peatland plants reveals a spatial pattern with northwest high and southeast low, with Zoige County having the richest species diversity. As climate conditions evolve, the possible habitats of major peatland plants will generally decrease, species richness will diminish, and biodiversity shifts near the boundaries of plateaus and basins will be particularly substantial. The majority of the advantageous peatland plant distribution regions have been included in the protection system. However, some potentially suitable and shrinking areas that have not been covered, and they should be prioritized in developing the protection network.