Interprovincial differences in the historical peak situation of building carbon emissions in China: Causes and enlightenments

Scientific assessment of the historical carbon peak situation of provincial buildings in China is the premise and basis for understanding the country's development trends and formulating carbon peak goals. The population size, urbanization stages, economic development levels, natural resources endowment, and energy structure characteristics vary significantly for the different provinces in China, resulting in significant differences in the peaking situation of building carbon emissions (BCE). The differences require more attention given the current environmental status. Based on the judgment function of carbon peaking conditions and the statistical Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test method, this study evaluates the historical peak situation of building carbon emissions at the provincial level in China. The peaking sequence of BCE, building carbon emissions per capita (BCEP), and carbon emissions per unit floor area (BCEA) were analyzed, and the driving factors that cause different carbon peak situations were discussed. Further, with reference to the experience of the United States, a peak strategy for building carbon emissions in China was proposed. The research results showed that BCE in Beijing and Yunnan have peaked, and the three provinces of Shanghai, Sichuan, and Hubei have plateaued. The most important factors that cause different peaking situations for BCE are the floor area per capita and carbon emissions per unit of energy consumption. In addition, the peak order of building carbon emissions was BCEA, BCEP, and BCE. A strategy that should be adopted in the promotion of buildings' carbon peak in China is to formulate phased peak goals for BCE, BCEP, and BCEA at a national level and differentiated echelon peak goals at a provincial level considering interprovincial differences. This study provides a scientific basis and decision-making reference for formulating a path to buildings' carbon peak at a provincial level in China.