Nomogram to predict recurrence risk factors in patients with non‐valvular paroxysmal atrial fibrillation after catheter radiofrequency ablation

Abstract Background Radiofrequency catheter ablation (RFCA) is an effective method for controlling the heart rate of paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (PAF). However, recurrence is trouble under the RFCA. To gain a deeper understanding of the risk factors for recurrence in patients, we created a nomogram model to provide clinicians with treatment recommendations. Methods A total of two hundred thirty‐three patients with PAF treated with RFCA at Guizhou Medical University Hospital between January 2021 and December 2022 were consecutively included in this study, and after 1 year of follow‐up coverage, 166 patients met the nadir inclusion criteria. Patients with AF were divided into an AF recurrence group and a non‐recurrence group. The nomogram was constructed using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. By calculating the area under the curve, we analyzed the predictive ability of the risk scores (AUC). In addition, the performance of the nomogram in terms of calibration, discrimination, and clinical utility was evaluated. Results At the 12‐month follow‐up, 48 patients (28.92%) experienced a recurrence of AF after RFCA, while 118 patients (71.08%) maintained a sinus rhythm. In addition to age, sex, and TRV, LAD, and TTPG were independent predictors of recurrence of RFCA. The c‐index of the nomogram predicted AF recurrence with an accuracy of .723, showing good decision curves and a calibrated nomogram, as determined by internal validation using a bootstrap sample size of 1000. Conclusion We created a nomogram based on multifactorial logistic regression analysis to estimate the probability of recurrence in patients with atrial fibrillation 1 year after catheter ablation. This plot can be utilized by clinicians to predict the likelihood of recurrence.