Measuring Reliable Accessibility to High-Speed Railway Stations by Integrating the Utility-Based Model and Multimodal Space–Time Prism under Travel Time Uncertainty

Measuring the accessibility of each traffic zone to high-speed railway stations can evaluate the ease of the transportation hub in the transportation system. The utility-based model, which captures individual travel behavior and subjective perception, is often used to quantify the travel impedance on accessibility for a given origin–destination pair. However, existing studies neglect the impacts of travel time uncertainty on utility and possible choice set when measuring accessibility, especially in high-timeliness travel (e.g., railway stations or airports). This study proposes a novel integration of the utility-based model and multimodal space–time prism under travel time uncertainty to measure reliable accessibility to high-speed railway stations. First, the reliable multimodal space–time prism is developed to generate a reliable travel mode choice set constrained by travel time budgets. Then, the reliable choice set is integrated into the utility-based model with the utility function derived from a proposed mean–standard deviation logit-based mode choice model. Finally, this study contributes to measuring reliable accessibility within areas from Beijing’s 5th Ring Road to the Beijing South Railway Station. Based on the results, policymakers can effectively evaluate the distribution of transportation resources and urban planning.