Wargaming Decision-Making Based on an Improved Lanchester Equation for UAV Aerial Combat

This study proposes a decision-making model for unmanned aerial vehicle aerial combat wargaming based on an improved Lanchester equation combined with matrix game theory. The model accounts for the dynamic confrontation between multiple types of UAVs by improving the traditional Lanchester equation with visibility ratios, consumption coefficients, and probabilistic targeting. A dynamic programming approach is employed to simulate multi-stage combat scenarios, while the Min-Max algorithm is used to derive optimal strategies at each stage. The model enables real-time tactical decision-making under uncertain and fast-changing combat conditions. Simulation results demonstrate the model's effectiveness and practicality, offering a theoretical foundation for intelligent UAV swarm operations in future air combat environments.