A nomogram for predicting survival in patients with advanced (stage III/IV) pancreatic body tail cancer: a SEER-based study

Abstract Objective Pancreatic body tail carcinoma (PBTC) is a relatively few pancreatic cancer in clinical practice, and its specific clinicopathological features and prognosis have not been fully described. In this study, we aimed to create a nomogram to predict the overall survival (OS) of patients with advanced PBTC. Methods We extracted clinical and related prognostic data of advanced PBTC patients from 2000 to 2018 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. Independent prognostic factors were selected using univariate and multivariate Cox analyses, and a nomogram was constructed using R software. The C-index, area under the curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristic curves, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to assess the clinical utility of the nomogram. Finally, OS was assessed using the Kaplan–Meier method. Results A total of 1256 patients with advanced PBTC were eventually included in this study. Age, grade, N stage, M stage, surgery, and chemotherapy were identified as independent risk factors using univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses ( p < 0.05). In the training cohort, the calibration index of the nomogram was 0.709, while the AUC values of the nomogram, age, grade, N stage, M stage, surgery, and chemotherapy were 0.777, 0.562, 0.621, 0.5, 0.576, 0.632, and 0.323, respectively. Meanwhile, in the validation cohort, the AUC values of the nomogram, age, grade, N stage, M stage, surgery, and chemotherapy were 0.772, 0.551, 0.629, 0.534, 0.577, 0.606, and 0.639, respectively. Good agreement of the model in the training and validation cohorts was demonstrated in the calibration and DCA curves. Univariate survival analysis showed a statistically significant effect of age, grade, M stage, and surgery on prognosis ( p < 0.05). Conclusion Age, grade, M stage, and surgery were independently associated with OS, and the established nomogram was a visual tool to effectively predict OS in advanced PBTC patients.