Science and research policy at the end of Moore’s law

The integrated circuit is today synonymous with the concept of technological progress. In the seven decades since the invention of the transistor at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite regular warnings from industry observers about impending limits. Here, drawing on technical and organizational archival work and oral histories, we argue that the current technological and structural challenges facing the industry are unprecedented and undermine the incentives for continued collective action in research and development, which has underpinned the past 50 years of transformational worldwide economic growth and social advance. We conclude by arguing that the lack of private incentives, due in part to a splintering of technology trajectories and short-term private profitability of many of these new splinters, creates a case for greatly increased public funding and the need for leadership beyond traditional stakeholders. This Perspective argues that the challenges facing the semiconductor industry are unprecedented and undermine incentives for continued collective action in research and development, potentially threatening world-wide economic growth; significantly increased public funding, as well as leadership beyond traditional stakeholders, is required.