The dynamic impact of digital economy on the green development of traditional manufacturing industry: Evidence from China

The traditional manufacturing industry is China’s second-largest source of carbon emissions, and the successful completion of dual carbon target depend on the traditional manufacturing industry’s ability to reduce emissions. This paper constructs the evaluation index system to analyze the driving factors and green coupling level of the digital economy enabling the green development of traditional manufacturing industry from three aspects: industry digitalization capacity, socio-economic benefits capacity and ecological resources carrying capacity based on the theory of social shaping of technology. From the perspective of regional economic development, this paper constructs the spatial Durbin model and threshold regression model to analyze the mediation effect and spatial spillover mechanism of the digital economy empowering the green development of traditional manufacturing industry. Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2012 to 2020, the empirical analysis show that digital economy has the positive impact on the green development of traditional manufacturing industry through the digital innovation, industrial upgrading and human capital. At same time, the digital economy has a positive spatial autocorrelation pattern of the green development of traditional manufacturing industries with “high in the eastern and low in the western of China” from the global Moran index. Through the policy test of carbon-trading pilot programs by the difference-in-differences model, the digital economy has a non-linear impact on the intensive production of traditional manufacturing industry, which green finance activate the new impetus of market and the data element resources enhance industrial coordination development.