Statistical-empirical pavement temperature prediction models based on data from road weather stations in Estonia

Asphalt pavement properties are greatly affected by seasonal temperature variation. Binder grade selection needs to be aligned with forecasted operational pavement temperatures to maximise pavement longevity. Different widely adopted models for determining binder Superpave Performance Grading have been shown to provide inaccurate results for the Nordic-Baltic region, leading to under- or overestimation of operational pavement temperatures and erroneous selection of a suitable binder grade. This study proposes empirically formulated pavement temperature prediction models for Estonia based on temperature data collected from six different road weather stations in Estonia from 2019 to 2023. Models were derived using measurements from daily maximum and minimum air temperatures combined with pavement temperature profiles with depth.