Development and validation of a predictive model for atrial fibrillation recurrence post–catheter ablation in patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation on the basis of hemodynamic parameters

BackgroundThe influence of hemodynamic parameters on the recurrence of atrial fibrillation (AF) following catheter ablation is not well known, and it remains unclear whether a nomogram combining risk factors and hemodynamic parameters improves prediction accuracy.ObjectiveThis study aimed to develop a nomogram based on echocardiographic hemodynamic parameters for predicting AF recurrence following catheter ablation in non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF).MethodsA total of 380 consecutive NVAF patients undergoing AF catheter ablation treatment were prospectively collected. Patients were divided into training and validation cohorts at a 7:3 ratio. The follow-up duration averaged 9 months with a median of 12 months, during which 132 patients (34.7%) experienced a recurrence of AF.ResultsLASSO regression and Cox regression analyses identified four significant predictors of AF recurrence: persistent AF (HR=1.63, 95% CI=1.02∼2.61, P=0.041), the systolic/diastolic (S/D) ratio (HR=0.50, 95% CI=0.30∼0.84, P=0.009), left atrial acceleration factor α (HR=1.31, 95% CI=1.02∼1.68, P=0.032), and left atrial appendage peak emptying flow velocity (HR=0.98, 95% CI=0.97∼0.99, P=0.004). Based on these four variables, a predictive nomogram was constructed. The nomogram demonstrated C-indexes of 0.664 and 0.728 for predicting 1-year and 2-year AF recurrence, respectively, in the validation cohort. The Kaplan-Meier survival analysis indicated that a Nomo-score greater than 128 was associated with a higher risk of AF recurrence.ConclusionHemodynamic parameters may offer valuable insight in predicting AF recurrence following catheter ablation. Our study successfully developed a reliable nomogram based on echocardiographic hemodynamic parameters to estimate the risk of AF recurrence after catheter ablation in NVAF patients.