SARS-CoV-2 Surveillance in US Wastewater: Leading Indicators and Data Variability Analysis in the 2023-2024 Season

Abstract Wastewater-Based Epidemiology (WBE) has become a powerful tool for assessing disease occurrence in communities. This study investigates the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic in the United States during the 2023-2024 season using wastewater data from 189 wastewater treatment plants in 40 states and the District of Columbia. Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and pepper-mild mottle virus normalized SARS-CoV-2 concentration data were compared with COVID-19 hospitalization admission data at both national and state levels. We further investigate temporal features in wastewater viral abundance, with peak timing and cross-correlation lag analyses indicating that wastewater SARS-CoV-2 concentrations precede hospitalization admissions by 2 to 12 days. Lastly, we demonstrate that wastewater treatment plant size, assessed by number of population served, has a significant effect on the variability of measured SARS-CoV-2 concentrations. This study highlights the effectiveness of WBE as a non-invasive, timely and resource-efficient disease monitoring strategy, especially in the context of declining COVID-19 clinical reporting.