Can Family Policies Enhance Fertility? An Ex Ante Evaluation Through Factorial Survey Experiments

This article explores the family policies-fertility nexus by assessing the potential impact of parental leaves, childcare services, and child benefits on fertility through a factorial survey experiment (FSE). We focus on Italy, where persistently low fertility rates are often linked to limited welfare support for families. We surveyed 4,022 respondents aged 20-44 and exposed them to various scenarios characterized by different family policy packages. We asked them to ascribe short-term fertility behavior to a fictitious couple under each scenario. Results show that each family-friendly policy envisioned positively impacts ascribed fertility. The availability of full-time, public childcare services seems more relevant than higher child benefits, whereas more generous and gender-equal parental leaves are perceived as less relevant. However, results suggest that only a consistent mix of financial benefits, parental leave schemes, and childcare provisions can boost fertility. In contrast, marginal changes in single policy levers are most likely ineffective. The FSE reveals that a couple's socioeconomic status is perceived as more important than family policies for fertility: ascribed fertility increases when both partners are employed and household income is high. We conclude by discussing the policy implications of our findings.