AlphaFold2-Enabled Atomistic Modeling of Structure, Conformational Ensembles, and Binding Energetics of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.2.86 Spike Protein with ACE2 Host Receptor and Antibodies: Compensatory Functional Effects of Binding Hotspots in Modulating Mechanisms of Receptor Binding and Immune Escape

The latest wave of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variants displayed a growth advantage and increased viral fitness through convergent evolution of functional hotspots that work synchronously to balance fitness requirements for productive receptor binding and efficient immune evasion. In this study, we combined AlphaFold2-based structural modeling approaches with atomistic simulations and mutational profiling of binding energetics and stability for prediction and comprehensive analysis of the structure, dynamics, and binding of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.2.86 spike variant with ACE2 host receptor and distinct classes of antibodies. We adapted several AlphaFold2 approaches to predict both the structure and conformational ensembles of the Omicron BA.2.86 spike protein in the complex with the host receptor. The results showed that the AlphaFold2-predicted structural ensemble of the BA.2.86 spike protein complex with ACE2 can accurately capture the main conformational states of the Omicron variant. Complementary to AlphaFold2 structural predictions, microsecond molecular dynamics simulations reveal the details of the conformational landscape and produced equilibrium ensembles of the BA.2.86 structures that are used to perform mutational scanning of spike residues and characterize structural stability and binding energy hotspots. The ensemble-based mutational profiling of the receptor binding domain residues in the BA.2 and BA.2.86 spike complexes with ACE2 revealed a group of conserved hydrophobic hotspots and critical variant-specific contributions of the BA.2.86 convergent mutational hotspots R403K, F486P, and R493Q. To examine the immune evasion properties of BA.2.86 in atomistic detail, we performed structure-based mutational profiling of the spike protein binding interfaces with distinct classes of antibodies that displayed significantly reduced neutralization against the BA.2.86 variant. The results revealed the molecular basis of compensatory functional effects of the binding hotspots, showing that BA.2.86 lineage may have evolved to outcompete other Omicron subvariants by improving immune evasion while preserving binding affinity with ACE2 via through a compensatory effect of R493Q and F486P convergent mutational hotspots. This study demonstrated that an integrative approach combining AlphaFold2 predictions with complementary atomistic molecular dynamics simulations and robust ensemble-based mutational profiling of spike residues can enable accurate and comprehensive characterization of structure, dynamics, and binding mechanisms of newly emerging Omicron variants.