A deep learning MR-based radiomic nomogram may predict survival for nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients with stage T3N1M0

Purpose To estimate the prognostic value of deep learning (DL) magnetic resonance (MR)-based radiomics for stage T3N1M0 nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) patients receiving induction chemotherapy (ICT) prior to concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT). Methods A total of 638 stage T3N1M0 NPC patients (training cohort: n = 447; test cohort: n = 191) were enrolled and underwent MRI scans before receiving ICT + CCRT. From the pretreatment MR images, DL-based radiomic signatures were developed to predict disease-free survival (DFS) in an end-to-end way. Incorporating independent clinical prognostic parameters and radiomic signatures, a radiomic nomogram was built through multivariable Cox proportional hazards method. The discriminative performance of the radiomic nomogram was assessed using the concordance index (C-index) and the Kaplan–Meier estimator. Results Three DL-based radiomic signatures were significantly correlated with DFS in the training (C-index: 0.695–0.731, all p < 0.001) and test (C-index: 0.706–0.755, all p < 0.001) cohorts. Integrating radiomic signatures with clinical factors significantly improved the predictive value compared to the clinical model in the training (C-index: 0.771 vs. 0.640, p < 0.001) and test (C-index: 0.788 vs. 0.625, p = 0.001) cohorts. Furthermore, risk stratification using the radiomic nomogram demonstrated that the high-risk group exhibited short-lived DFS compared to the low-risk group in the training cohort (hazard ratio [HR]: 6.12, p < 0.001), which was validated in the test cohort (HR: 6.90, p < 0.001). Conclusions Our DL-based radiomic nomogram may serve as a noninvasive and useful tool for pretreatment prognostic prediction and risk stratification in stage T3N1M0 NPC.