Radiomic Features at Contrast-enhanced CT Predict Recurrence in Early Stage Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Multi-Institutional Study

Background Early stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the ideal candidate for resection in patients with preserved liver function; however, cancer will recur in half of these patients and no reliable prognostic tool has been established. Purpose To investigate the effectiveness of radiomic features in predicting tumor recurrence after resection of early stage HCC. Materials and Methods In total, 295 patients (median age, 58 years; interquartile range, 50–65 years; 221 men) who underwent contrast material–enhanced CT and curative resection for early stage HCC that met the Milan criteria between February 2009 and December 2016 were retrospectively recruited from three independent institutions. Follow-up consisted of serum α-fetoprotein level, liver function tests, and dynamic imaging examinations every 3 months during the first 2 years and then every 6 months thereafter. In the development cohort of 177 patients from institution 1, recurrence-related radiomic features were computationally extracted from the tumor and its periphery and a radiomics signature was built with least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression. Two models, one integrating preoperative and one integrating pre- and postoperative variables, were created by using multivariable Cox regression analysis. An independent external cohort of 118 patients from institutions 2 and 3 was used to validate the proposed models. Results The preoperative model integrated radiomics signature with serum α-fetoprotein level and tumor number; the postoperative model incorporated microvascular invasion and satellite nodules into the above-mentioned predictors. In both study cohorts, two radiomics-based models provided better predictive performance (concordance index ≥0.77, P < .05 for all), lower prediction error (integrated Brier score ≤0.14), and larger net benefits, as determined by means of decision curve analysis, than rival models without radiomics and widely adopted staging systems. The radiomics-based models gave three risk strata with high, intermediate, or low risk of recurrence and distinct profiles of recurrent tumor number. Conclusion The proposed radiomics models with pre- and postresection features helped predict tumor recurrence for early stage hepatocellular carcinoma. © RSNA, 2020 Online supplemental material is available for this article.