Navigating the trilemma of sustainable aviation fuel development in China: status and prospects

This study investigates sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) development in China through interviews with 31 stakeholders, including fuel producers, aircraft manufacturers, airlines, and supply chain companies. The research identifies four recurring challenges: overreliance on used cooking oil and the hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFA) pathway, uncertain demand, lack of standardisation, and unclear policy support. Drawing on these interviews and industrial policy literature, the study proposes the concept of “SAF trilemma” —affordability, scalability, and sustainability—and presents an analytical framework and metrics to guide policy design and planning. A five-phase policy roadmap is proposed: (1) setting SAF mandates; (2) diversifying feedstocks; (3) developing carbon markets and accounting systems; (4) streamlining SAF supply chains; and (5) establishing national sustainability certification schemes. • This study investigates China’s sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) development. • Four recurring challenges are identified. • The SAF trilemma —affordability, scalability and sustainability—is proposed. • A five-phase roadmap for SAF policy implementation is suggested.