Estimation of Winter Wheat Production Potential Based on Remotely-Sensed Imagery and Process-Based Model Simulations

Crop production potential is an index used to evaluate crop productivity capacity in one region. The spatial production potential can help give the maximum value of crop yield and visually clarify the prospects of agricultural development. The DSSAT (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer) model has been used in crop growth analysis, but spatial simulation and analysis at high resolution have not been widely performed for exact crop planting locations. In this study, the light-temperature production potential of winter wheat was simulated with the DSSAT model in the winter wheat planting area, extracted according to Remote Sensing (RS) image data in the Jing-Jin-Ji (JJJ) region. To obtain the precise study area, a Decision Tree (DT) classification was used to extract the winter wheat planting area. Geographic Information System (GIS) technology was used to process spatial data and provide a map of the spatial distribution of the production potential. The production potential of winter wheat was estimated in batches with the DSSAT model. The results showed that the light-temperature production potential is between 4238 and 10,774 kg/ha in JJJ. The production potential in the central part of the planting area is higher than that in the south and north in JJJ due to the influences of light and temperature. These results can be useful for crop model simulation users and decision makers in JJJ.