Association Between Disability Trajectory and Health Care Service Utilization Among Older Adults in China

This study aimed to identify the heterogeneous disability trajectories among older Chinese adults and examine the association between disability trajectories and health care service utilization.Prospective cohort study.A community-based study including older adults aged ≥65 years from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey.Disability was assessed by the difficulties in activities of daily living and instrumental activities of daily living between 2002 and 2018. Health care utilization was measured by the expenditures on outpatient and inpatient services in 2018. Growth mixture modeling was conducted to estimate heterogeneous disability trajectories. A 2-part model was used to analyze the association of disability trajectories and health care utilization. Covariates were included based on Andersen's behavioral model.Three classes of disability trajectories were identified: the progressive (7.9%), late-onset (13.7%), and normal classes (78.4%). Older adults who followed the late-onset trajectory of disability were more likely to use inpatient services compared with the normal class (odds ratio = 1.47, P < .010), after controlling potential confounders. Compared with the normal class, the progressive class on average spent US$145.94 more annually (45.2% higher) on outpatient services (P < .010) and $738.99 more annually (72.6% higher) on inpatient services (P < .001); the late-onset class reported higher annual expenditures on outpatient and inpatient services of $215.94 (66.9% higher) and $1405.00 (138.0% higher), respectively (all P < .001).Heterogeneous disability trajectories exhibited distinct health care service utilization patterns among older Chinese adults. Older adults affected by late-onset disability incurred the highest health care needs. These findings provide valuable policy-relevant evidence for reducing health care burden among older adults.