Sex-specific Trajectories of Insulin Resistance Markers and Reduced Renal Function During 18 Years of Follow-up: TLGS

The evidence suggest that insulin resistance (IR) complicates chronic kidney disease (CKD); however, the longitudinal association of IR with development of CKD is unknown.This work aimed to investigate the association between the dynamic course of insulin resistance and CKD.In the longitudinal, population-based Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study, 3071 eligible participants aged 20 years or older were followed for 18 years at 3-year intervals. Homeostatic model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) and clinical surrogate markers of IR, including triglyceride-glucose index (TyG), visceral adiposity index (VAI), and lipid accumulation product (LAP), were calculated. Using latent variable mixture modeling, sex-specific trajectories were plotted for each IR marker. Trajectory group association of the IR markers with CKD was determined using the multivariable Cox proportional-hazards regression model.For HOMA-IR, 2 distinct trajectory patterns (stable and increasing), and for TyG, VAI, and LAP, 3 trajectories (low, moderate, and high) were identified. The participants with an increasing HOMA-IR trajectory had a significantly increased risk of CKD in men (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.72; 95% CI, 1.06-2.79) and women (HR: 1.37; 95% CI, 1.00-1.89) after adjusting for confounding variables. The high TyG and VAI trajectory classes were associated with a higher risk of CKD than the low TyG and VAI trajectory classes both in men (TyG: HR: 1.97; 95% CI, 1.12-3.46; VAI: HR:1.66; 95% CI, 1.06-2.62) and women (TyG: HR: 1.50; 95% CI, 1.06-2.12; VAI: HR:1.66; 95% CI, 1.20-2.31). In contrast, the high LAP (HR: 3.38; 95% CI, 2.08-5.48) trajectory was associated with incident CKD only in women.An increasing trend of HOMA-IR is associated with a higher risk of CKD in men and women. Among clinical IR surrogate markers, abnormal trajectory patterns of LAP in women and TyG and VAI in both sexes are associated with a higher risk of CKD.