Quantifying Ecological Dynamics and Anthropogenic Dominance in Drylands: A Hybrid Modeling Framework Integrating MRSEI and SHAP-Based Explainable Machine Learning in Northwest China

Arid and semi-arid regions serve as crucial ecological barriers in China, making the spatiotemporal evolution of their ecological environmental quality (EEQ) scientifically significant. This study developed a Modified Remote Sensing Ecological Index (MRSEI) by innovatively integrating the Comprehensive Salinity Indicator (CSI) into the Remote Sensing Ecological Index (RSEI) and applied it to systematically evaluate the spatiotemporal evolution of EEQ (2014–2023) in Yinchuan City, a typical arid region of northwest China along the upper Yellow River. The study revealed the spatiotemporal evolution patterns through the Theil–Sen (T-S) estimator and Mann–Kendall (M-K) test, and adopted the Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM) combined with the Shapley Additive Explanation (SHAP) to quantify the contributions of ten natural and anthropogenic driving factors. The results suggest that (1) the MRSEI outperformed the RSEI, showing 0.41% higher entropy and 5.63% greater contrast, better characterizing the arid region’s heterogeneity. (2) The EEQ showed marked spatial heterogeneity. High-quality areas are concentrated in the Helan Mountains and the integrated urban/rural development demonstration zone, while the core functional zone of the provincial capital, the Helan Mountains ecological corridor, and the eastern eco-economic pilot zone showed lower EEQ. (3) A total of 87.92% of the area (7609.23 km2) remained stable with no significant changes. Notably, degraded areas (934.52 km2, 10.80%) exceeded improved zones (111.04 km2, 1.28%), demonstrating an overall ecological deterioration trend. (4) This study applied LightGBM with SHAP to analyze the driving factors of EEQ. The results demonstrated that Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) was the predominant driver, contributing 41.52%, followed by the Digital Elevation Model (DEM, 18.26%) and Net Primary Productivity (NPP, 12.63%). This study offers a novel framework for arid ecological monitoring, supporting evidence-based conservation and sustainable development in the Yellow River Basin.