The dynamic analysis on ecological footprint and ecological capacity of Gansu province

The research analyzed the changes of the ecological footprint per capita,the ecological capacity per capita and the ecological deficit per capita and the ecological footprint per million GDP of Gansu Province during 1996 and 2009 by the method of ecological footprint and predicted them by GM(1.1).The results showed:(1)The ecological footprint per capita of Gansu Province had increased year by year from 1.3835hm2 to 2.2973hm2.The changes of the ecological capacity per capita were not obvious,the ecological deficit existed during 1996 and 2009 from 0.4256hm2 to 1.3515hm2.(2)The ecological capacity per capita basically maintained at 0.9213-0.9579hm2,and keeped a slow downward trend.(3)The ecological deficit per capita increased with a growth of 11.46%.(4)The prediction indicated that the ecological footprint per capita will be 3.4732hm2 in 2015 and 4.7153hm2 in 2020.The per capita ecological deficit will be 2.5355hm2 in 2015 and 3.7759hm2 in 2020.In the view of the situation of Gansu Province,the way for improving sustainable development is raising agricultural yield per unit and improving the mode of the development of industry.