Joint effusion at 6 months is a significant predictor of joint effusion 1 year after anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction

PURPOSE: This study aimed to assess the risk factors for prolonged joint effusion in patients undergoing double-bundle anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction (ACLR). METHODS: In total, 160 patients who underwent primary ACLR using autograft hamstring between 2015 and 2018 were retrospectively reviewed. Joint effusion was defined as any grade ≥ 2 (range, 0-3) according to the MRI Osteoarthritis Knee Score (MOAKS). Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed. RESULTS: The median age of the patients was 25 years (range 14-68 years) at the time of the surgery; there were 89 women and 71 men. At 1 year, 46 (28.8%) patients experienced knee joint effusion, as defined by the MOAKS. Univariate analysis revealed that age, preoperative Kellgren-Lawrence (K-L) grade, and joint effusion at 6 months were significantly associated with joint effusion at 1 year. In the multivariate analysis, joint effusion at 6 months was significantly associated with joint effusion at 1 year (odds ratio, 68.0; 95% confidence interval, 22.1-209.4). No significant difference in the Lysholm scores was observed between patients with and without joint effusion at 1 year (n.s.). CONCLUSIONS: Joint effusion at 6 months was significantly associated with joint effusion 1 year after ACLR. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: III.