经济
情感(语言学)
个人消费支出价格指数
经济衰退
消费(社会学)
失业
个人收入
商业周期
库存(枪支)
货币经济学
宏观经济学
心理学
工程类
社会学
机械工程
沟通
社会科学
作者
Christopher Roth,Johannes Wohlfart
摘要
Using a representative online panel from the United States, we examine how individuals' macroeconomic expectations causally affect their personal economic prospects and their behavior. To exogenously vary respondents' expectations, we provide them with different professional forecasts about the likelihood of a recession. Respondents update their macroeconomic outlook in response to the forecasts, extrapolate to expectations about their personal economic circumstances, and adjust their consumption plans and stock purchases. Extrapolation to expectations about personal unemployment is driven by individuals with higher exposure to macroeconomic risk, consistent with macroeconomic models of imperfect information in which people are inattentive but understand how the economy works.
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