Critical role of water conditions in the responses of autumn phenology of marsh wetlands to climate change on the Tibetan Plateau

Abstract The Tibetan Plateau, housing 20% of China's wetlands, plays a vital role in the regional carbon cycle. Examining the phenological dynamics of wetland vegetation in response to climate change is crucial for understanding its impact on the ecosystem. Despite this importance, the specific effects of climate change on wetland vegetation phenology in this region remain uncertain. In this study, we investigated the influence of climate change on the end of the growing season (EOS) of marsh wetland vegetation across the Tibetan Plateau, utilizing satellite‐derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data and observational climate data. We observed that the regionally averaged EOS of marsh vegetation across the Tibetan Plateau was significantly ( p < .05) delayed by 4.10 days/decade from 2001 to 2020. Warming preseason temperatures were found to be the primary driver behind the delay in the EOS of marsh vegetation, whereas preseason cumulative precipitation showed no significant impact. Interestingly, the responses of EOS to climate change varied spatially across the plateau, indicating a regulatory role for hydrological conditions in marsh phenology. In the humid and cold central regions, preseason daytime warming significantly delayed the EOS. However, areas with lower soil moisture exhibited a weaker or reversed delay effect, suggesting complex interplays between temperature, soil moisture, and EOS. Notably, in the arid southwestern regions of the plateau, increased preseason rainfall directly delayed the EOS, while higher daytime temperatures advanced it. Our results emphasize the critical role of hydrological conditions, specifically soil moisture, in shaping marsh EOS responses in different regions. Our findings underscore the need to incorporate hydrological factors into terrestrial ecosystem models, particularly in cold and dry regions, for accurate predictions of marsh vegetation phenological responses to climate change. This understanding is vital for informed conservation and management strategies in the face of current and future climate challenges.