Spatiotemporal dynamics of carbon sinks in China's terrestrial ecosystems from 2010 to 2060

Enhancing carbon (C) sinks in terrestrial ecosystems is expected and essential for achieving C neutrality in China. However, the spatiotemporal dynamics of future C sequestration rates (CSR) in terrestrial ecosystems in China remain unclear. Based on a large amount of field investigation data, we used the forest C sequestration model of succession theory and the random forest model to evaluate the CSR of China from 2010 to 2060 under three scenarios (SSP119, SSP245, and SSP585). The CSR ranged from 0.270 to 0.542 Pg C yr–1, with an average of 0.423 Pg C yr–1. The CSR will arrive at its maximum during 2030–2040 and then decrease due to increasing forest age. CSR is negatively correlated with provincial development levels and is significantly lower in developed provinces than in developing and undeveloped provinces. Furthermore, inter-provincial imbalance in the CSR could increase from 2010 to 2060, which may pressurize the realizability of CSR in the long run, especially in the undeveloped provinces. Our findings provide new insights into the future spatiotemporal dynamics of C sinks in China and highlight the importance of rational regulation of natural restoration and new policies to coordinate regional economies in order to achieve national C neutrality.