Anatomy of the Fall of the Ba’ th Regime in Syria

ABSTRACT: After 54 years of authoritarian rule by the Ba’th party in Syria, the quick overthrow of the Bashar al-Assad regime by the rebel group Hey’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a former al-Qaeda affiliate, was a surprise for many analysts. The al-Assad regime’s façade of military strength crumbled as the Syrian army abandoned their posts in Damascus, Aleppo and elsewhere leaving behind arsenals of equipment in a retreat that left no options for regime survival. This study tries to uncover the internal and external multiple factors that caused the regime to collapse so quickly. This study tries to provide answers to a number of questions and to find adequate answers as to how and why the regime collapsed so quickly. For example, how did the thirteen-year long civil war affect the resilience of the regime and its domestic backers? How did the dynamics of the regime’s fall unfold? Why did the most trained and loyalist forces, particularly the 4th Armoured Division and the Republican Guard, not fight? Why did external supporters of al-Assad, such as Russia, Iran and Hizbullah refrain from supporting the regime? We also examine the impact of regional chaos, mainly Israel’s attrition of Hizbullah in Lebanon and Russia’s preoccupation with a draining conflict in Ukraine that left the al-Assad regime alone with HTS with other opposition groups launching their offensive.