Carbon potential of China's Grain to Green Program and its contribution to the carbon target

Afforestation and reforestation are deemed promising strategies for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and global warming. Here, we estimated the impact of China's Grain for Green Program (GFGP) on carbon storage and carbon sink capacity over the past 20 years. We then projected the carbon potential of the GFGP under expansion and management scenarios for 2030 and 2060. Our results showed that the GFGP contributed to 1482.62 Tg of a carbon sink from 2000 to 2020. By 2030 and 2060, the carbon sink induced by the GFGP reached 47.59–75.85 Tg per year, and 38.67–73.67 Tg per year, respectively. This sink offset 0.74–1.19 % and 0.98–1.87 % of the CO2 emissions from all of China in 2030 and 2060, respectively. Our results indicate that national ecological restoration programs can mitigate China's extensive carbon emissions in China, and highlight new solutions for removing CO2 from the atmosphere in other countries.