Future of solar energy potential in a changing climate across the world: A CMIP6 multi-model ensemble analysis

Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of the United Nations (UN) underline the importance of harnessing renewable energy sources for enhancing access to clean energy without compromising the global emission goals. This study explores the impact of climate change on global solar energy potential in the near- (2015–2040) and far-future (2041–2100). Simulated energy variables from five General Circulation Models (GCMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) for three different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) – SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 are used for the assessment. It is found that there is a 6–10% decrease (with respect to 1981–2014 climatology) in Photovoltaic (PV) potential in the Indian subcontinent and China in the boreal autumn that is possibly linked to increased post-monsoon cloud cover. A consistent decrease is noticed in North America and Australia, whereas in Europe, the projected decrease in PV potential, even for the worst emission scenario (SSP5-8.5), is restricted only to the boreal winter season, thereby posing no real threat to future PV power planning. However, a mild decrease in PV potential in Africa during austral summer and a consistent decrease in Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) all over the world contradict earlier studies. Change in PV potential during the far-future using CMIP6 model projections. The typical diagram shows the percentage change during the period of 2041–2100 (far-future) with respect to the period of 1981–2014 (historical) under worst climate change scenario (SSP5-8.5) during boreal winter (Dec-Jan-Feb). A significant decrease (>10%) over the whole of North America and western Europe and up to 4–10% decrease in Asia, Africa and Australia. Entire analysis is helpful for local scale energy planning.