Predictors of antral follicle count during the reproductive years

BACKGROUND: We sought to identify indicators of antral follicle count which would be serviceable to clinicians seeking to estimate the number of ovarian follicles without relying on sonographic counts. METHODS: We examined the relations of chronological age and four potential indicators of ovarian age-ovarian volume, FSH, dimeric inhibin B and estradiol-to antral follicle count in 176 recently pregnant women. We identified the regression models which best predict low antral follicle count (< or =10 follicles). RESULTS: Chronological age, ovarian volume, FSH and inhibin B were each significantly associated with antral follicle count. Fifty-three (30.1%) women had < or =10 antral follicles. In the total sample, at the cutpoint corresponding to 80% sensitivity, the positive predictive value for a regression model with all four variables was 60%. All regression models performed less well in women <35 years (13.9% with low count) than in women > or =35 years (52.0% with low count). In older women, the positive predictive value for the model with all four variables was 79%, compared with 60% for a model with chronological age alone. CONCLUSIONS: Our models provide a basis for advising women aged > or =35 years who are either trying to conceive or wish to learn whether they may postpone childbearing.