Treadmill Velocity Best Predicts 5000-m Run Performance

In this study, we aimed to investigate physiological determinants of endurance performance that best predict 5000-m average run velocity before and after endurance training. Thirty-nine previously untrained participants completed a 5000-m run; a constant velocity test (measuring running economy); and an incremental treadmill test to determine maximal oxygen uptake, final treadmill velocity, and velocity and oxygen uptake at lactate threshold, before and after six weeks of endurance training. Maximal oxygen uptake, final treadmill velocity, and velocity and oxygen uptake at threshold all increased significantly after training (p < 0.05). Average velocity for 5000 m increased significantly (p < 0.05). Running economy was not significantly altered. Correlation analysis revealed final treadmill velocity was most strongly related to 5000-m performance, in both untrained and trained states (r = 0.89, 0.83). Lactate threshold velocity (r = 0.73, 0.76), maximal oxygen uptake (r = 0.55, 0.51) and oxygen uptake at threshold (r = 0.45, 0.45) also showed significant correlations. In contrast, running economy was not significantly related to performance. These results demonstrate that final treadmill velocity in an VO2max test is the single best predictor of 5000-m performance in untrained and trained states. Furthermore, stepwise regression analysis showed that only velocity at lactate threshold significantly improved the accuracy of prediction provided by final treadmill velocity alone.