Local Gazetteers Reveal Contrasting Patterns of Historical Distribution Changes between Apex Predators and Mesopredators in Eastern China

Abstract Background Humans have been causing the sixth wave of mass extinction of biodiversity. The situation of predators, especially of carnivores, is a key indicator of biodiversity, and the mesopredator release is a typical phenomenon in ecosystem recess. Local gazetteers are a rich resource for historical biodiversity research. However there are obvious biases in previous studies focusing only on presence records and neglecting the absence records. I recollected and analyzed the records by fixed methods to research historical biodiversity change. Methods Innovatively, this research used both presence and absence records from local gazetteers to reconstruct the distribution of 8 kinds of mammalian predators (i.e. large carnivores: tigers, leopards, and bears; medium-sized carnivores: wolves, foxes, civets, dholes, and mustelids) in eastern China from 1573C.E.(Common Era) to 1949C.E. (sorted into 4 periods). Then by utilizing statistics methods, e.g. Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling(PLS-SEM), I analyzed the distribution changes(overall and sorted into 5 altitude groups), and the relation between carnivores and the influence from humans. Results & Conclusions I reconstructed the specific distribution changes of the carnivores and found the changes match the mesopredator release phenomenon. Furthermore, I found the specific relation(e.g. trade-off effect) between carnivores and the influence of humans. Besides, I found that bears and civets may be potential members of the “Tigers - Leopards - Dholes” predator guild. Prospects I have also collected records for other wild animals from local gazetteers in China. Based on this collection, I have built the Database of Wild Mammal Records in Chinese Local Gazetteers and am building the Database of Wild Bird Records in Chinese Local Gazetteers. I aim to continue relevant studies using these databases in the future.