On the Failure Probability of Offshore Wind Turbines in the China Coastal Waters Due to Typhoons: A Case Study Using the OC4-DeepCwind Semisubmersible

The paper introduces a set of modeling methods to predict the failure probability of offshore wind turbines in the China coastal waters. In detail, a series of full-set three-dimensional meteorology simulations are conducted using the Weather Research and Forecast model to provide the extreme wind fields, while the extreme wave fields are predicted according to the conditional probability model. After the extreme wind and wave fields are prepared, the ultimate loads on the three critical parts of an OC4-DeepCwind semisubmersible wind turbine are simulated using the fatigue, aerodynamics, structures, and turbulence code, which in turn leads to the prediction of the failure probability. It has been found that the OC4-DeepCwind semisubmersible constructed in the Taiwan Strait has higher chance to fail under typhoon conditions than in other parts of the China coastal waters, showing a maximum failure probability of 0.6. In addition, the failure probabilities in the South and East China Sea are in the range of 0.3-0.45. The probability densities of the ultimate loads show, in some cases, a bimodal shape, which indicates that the loads as well as the failure probability are not in a simple linear relationship with the extreme wind speeds and wave heights/periods.