Research on carbon emission reduction effect of China's regional digital trade under the “double carbon” target-- combination of the regulatory role of industrial agglomeration and carbon emissions trading mechanism

As a product of the integration of commerce and technology, digital trade is a key element of the digital economy. Giving full consideration to how digital trade reduces carbon emissions is crucial for achieving the objectives of “carbon peaking and carbon neutrality” and high-quality economic growth. The “production side” and “consumption side” of social reproduction process are also included in this study for analyzing digital trade and carbon emissions, and the moderating effects of industrial agglomeration and carbon emissions trading mechanisms on the effects of digital trade on carbon emission reduction are also covered. This study conducts the empirical test based on the data of 30 provincial samples in China from 2011 to 2020, with the dynamic spatial econometric model and system GMM estimation method. The findings demonstrate that digital trade clearly reduces carbon emissions. The effect also demonstrates regional heterogeneity, with the north being greater than the south, and the middle and western regions being stronger than the eastern regions. On the consumption side, the mediating effect of rural residents' consumption structure upgrade is the carbon emission inhibition effect, and the mediating effect of urban residents’ consumption structure upgrade is the carbon emission promotion effect. The adjustment mechanism test found that manufacturing agglomeration weakened the carbon emission reduction effect of digital trade, while producer service agglomeration, manufacturing-producer service industry synergistic agglomeration, and pilot policies for carbon emissions trading rights further strengthened the impact of carbon reduction effect of digital trade.