Direct Comparison of EEG Resting State and Task Functional Connectivity Patterns for Predicting Working Memory Performance Using Connectome-Based Predictive Modeling

Background: The integration of machine learning with advanced neuroimaging has emerged as a powerful approach for uncovering the relationship between neuronal activity patterns and behavioral traits. While resting-state neuroimaging has significantly contributed to understanding the neural basis of cognition, recent fMRI studies suggest that task-based paradigms may offer superior predictive power for cognitive outcomes. However, this hypothesis has never been tested using electroencephalography (EEG) data. Methods: We conducted the first experimental comparison of predictive models built on high-density EEG data recorded during both resting-state and an auditory working memory task. Multiple data processing pipelines were employed to ensure robustness and reliability. Model performance was evaluated by computing the Pearson correlation coefficient between predicted and observed behavioral scores, supplemented by mean absolute error and root mean square error metrics for each model configuration. Results: Consistent with prior fMRI findings, task-based EEG data yielded slightly better modeling performance than resting-state data. Both conditions demonstrated high predictive accuracy, with peak correlations between observed and predicted values reaching r = 0.5. Alpha and beta band functional connectivity were the strongest predictors of working memory performance, followed by theta and gamma bands. Additionally, the choice of parcellation atlas and connectivity method significantly influenced results, highlighting the importance of methodological considerations. Conclusion: Our findings support the advantage of task-based EEG over resting-state data in predicting cognitive performance, aligning with the results of fMRI studies. The study underscores the critical role of frequency-specific functional connectivity and methodological choices in model performance. These insights should guide future experimental designs in cognitive neuroscience. Impact Statement This study provides the first direct comparison of EEG-based functional connectivity during rest and task conditions for predicting working memory performance using connectome-based predictive modeling (CPM). It demonstrates that task-based EEG data slightly outperforms resting-state data, with alpha and beta bands being the most predictive. The findings highlight the critical influence of methodological choices, such as parcellation atlases and connectivity metrics, on model outcomes. By bridging gaps in EEG research and validating CPM’s applicability, this work advances the optimization of neuroimaging protocols for cognitive assessment, offering insights for future studies in cognitive neuroscience.