Evaluating the effectiveness of the Shan-Shui Initiatives in China

• An evaluation of ecosystem services was conducted for the Shan-Shui Initiative in China. • Ecological restoration measures were identified based on land use change. • Most ecosystem services improved after the implementation of the Shan-Shui Initiative. • Spatial spillover effects were observed around the Shan-Shui Initiative areas. The Shan-Shui Initiative has attracted global attention in massively contained ecological deterioration and restored millions of hectares of land in China. There are high hopes for this new combination of protection, restoration, and management of ecosystems, its overall benefits, however, remain uncertain. Here, we employed ecosystem service (ES) indicators to quantitatively evaluate the effectiveness of all pilot projects since 2016 at the national scale. Results show that after the implementation of Shan-Shui Initiative, ES have significantly improved, with increases in water yield (14.3 %), carbon sequestration (13.7 %), soil conservation (6.5 %), windbreak sand fixation (5.0 %), and habitat quality (0.7 %). The changes in ES were driven by both the Shan-Shui Initiative and climate change. Projects with longer implementation periods showed a more pronounced trend of growth in ESs, particularly evident in the ecological space. The spillover effects were widely present and the prevalence of positive spillover effects was notably greater than that of negative ones. Furthermore, the diverse interventions implemented in the Shan-Shui project had varying impacts on ES across different regions. Overall, these interventions showed a positive influence on ESs, although the degree of trade-off showed a south-high and north-low pattern. This highlights the necessity for ecological restoration efforts to carefully consider regional differences. This study may provide policy guidance for optimizing the layout and sustainable management of Shan-Shui ecological restoration projects.