Driving Mechanism of Urban-Rural Integrated Development: Population-Land-Industry Perspective

Urban-rural integration (URI) is a complex system engineering problem involving the interaction of multiple aspects of population-land-industry. Identifying the driving mechanisms of the drivers of urban-rural integration development is crucial for predicting the future trends of urban-rural integration and identifying the key promotion paths. In this study, 27 representative factors were synthetically identified using literature research and expert interview methods. Then, the explanatory structural model (ISM) is combined with the Impact Matrix Cross-Reference Multiplication Applied to a Classification (MICMAC), which can be used to analyze and model the complex relationships and interactions in URI systems, to establish integrated ISM- MICMAC model. The model was applied to quantify the causal driving relationships among factors and to develop a multilevel recursive structural model for understanding the underlying mechanisms. The analysis revealed that all 27 drivers can be classified into seven layers. Four source factors such as land use planning and policies, three outcome factors such as urban and rural residents' income, and 20 process factors such as population size are included. And accordingly, corresponding suggestions are made for the government. This study contributes to the advancement of theoretical and model development in understanding the driving mechanism of urban-rural integration. Moreover, it provides valuable insights for policymakers in formulating evidence-based development strategies.