Climate policy uncertainty and carbon emission intensity: Evidence from Chinese provinces

Against the backdrop of China's carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals, it is important to understand whether fluctuations in the policy environment affect regional decarbonization. Using panel data from 30 Chinese provinces over the period 2000-2023, this study examines how climate policy uncertainty affects carbon emission intensity. A two-way fixed-effects model is used to estimate the main relationship, while tail trimming used to assess robustness and an instrumental-variable approach employed to support causal identification. A structural equation model is used to explore the mediating mechanism, and interaction terms are introduced to examine heterogeneity. The results show that greater climate policy uncertainty is, on average, associated with lower carbon emission intensity, although the magnitude and direction of this association vary across provinces. Specifically, the effect is weaker in provinces with higher population density but stronger in provinces with higher energy consumption intensity. Public environmental attention is identified as an important channel through which climate policy uncertainty influences carbon emission intensity. These findings suggest that higher climate policy uncertainty is associated with lower carbon emission intensity in China by shaping expectations and encouraging firms and local governments to adjust carbon-intensive activities in advance. Accordingly, the policy implication is not necessarily to eliminate uncertainty altogether, but to recognize that credible climate-policy signals, even under uncertainty conditions, may promote anticipatory decarbonization responses.