Impacts of climate change and variability on the growth potential of global mangrove distribution

.Mangrove ecosystems are vulnerable to climate change impacts, which depend on species sensitivity and location. We studied the effects of climate change on three dominant mangrove species globally: red, black, and white mangroves. Using simulation, GIS, and statistical modeling, we evaluated spatially explicit changes in growth suitability resulting from climatic change. Our analysis shows that climate change has significant impacts on mangrove wetlands, with red and black mangroves being the most affected. Low precipitation can impact all species, with red, black, and white mangroves showing a 0.008%, 0.004%, and 0.008% decrease in growth suitability, respectively, for each one mm reduction in precipitation. Variability in climatic variables, such as a unit increase in CV, also significantly impacts mangroves. These results highlight the need to protect mangrove ecosystems for the sustainability of coastal ecosystems.