The impact of land use and land cover changes on the landscape pattern and ecosystem service value in Sanjiangyuan region of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Decades of intensifying human activities have caused dramatic changes in land use and land cover (LULC) in the ecologically fragile areas of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, which have led to significant changes in ecosystem service value (ESV). Taking the ecologically fragile Sanjiangyuan region of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau as the research object, we focused on understanding the impact of LULC changes on the Sanjiangyuan's landscape pattern and its corresponding ESV, which was combined with a Markov-Plus model to predict LULC changes in 2030. The results showed: (1) from 2000 to 2020, the LULC of Sanjiangyuan has changed to varying degrees, respectively. In the central and southern regions where animal husbandry is the mainstay activity, the area of grass land converted to bareland had expanded; (2) from 2000 to 2010, the total regional ESV increased sharply. However, the total amount of ESV decreased from 2010 to 2020; (3) the overall ESV in the study area was observed to be trending down and is expected to decrease by approximately 4.25 billion CNY by 2030; (4) the fragmentation and complexity of regional landscape patterns will negatively affect local ecosystem stability and biodiversity. Overall, there is a strong temporal and spatial correlation between LULC and ESV. This study will provide a reference for the local government to provide targeted and sustainable land management policies, thereby promoting the improvement of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau regional ecology value.