How Does Persuasion Happen? A Novel Bounded Confidence Opinion Dynamics Model Based on Social Judgment Theory

Persuasion exists in every aspect of social life. It is important to understand how persuasion works and how strong it is. In this article, we improve the classic Hegselmann–Krause model, one of the most famous bounded confidence models, and propose a novel opinion dynamics model to explain the process by which persuasion occurs from a systematic perspective. In our model, the concepts of latitudes of acceptance, noncommitment, and rejection from social judgment theory and the cognitive error in the process of persuasion, namely assimilation, are introduced. When people are exchanging their opinions with their neighbors, the opinions in the latitude of acceptance will be assimilated, those in the latitude of noncommitment will keep unchanged, and those in the latitude of rejection will not be considered. Theoretical proofs show that our model will converge to a stable state in a finite time. Numerical results of extensive simulation experiments on four datasets show the performance of the model. Furthermore, real social platform data and global COVID-19 vaccination data are analyzed to verify the effectiveness of the model in the decision-making process.